TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Padjadjaran University (Unpad) energy economist Yayan Satyaki projects the price of Pertamax fuel oil to gradually decrease from Rp16,250 per liter in June to Rp12,100–Rp13,500 per liter in December 2026.
"There's room for lowering non-subsidized fuel prices. Dexlite and Pertamina Dex have already been reduced," Yayan said on Saturday, as quoted by ANTARA.
He projected the price of Pertamax to fall to Rp15,228 per liter in July, then Rp14,557 per liter in August, Rp14,112 per liter in September, Rp13,814 per liter in October, Rp13,614 per liter in November, and then Rp13,479 per liter in December.
The projection estimates that the Indonesian crude price (ICP) will gradually decline to US$90.6 per barrel by December 2026, and the exchange rate will gradually strengthen from Rp17,927 to Rp16,959 by December 2026.
Yayan further explained that the dynamics of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran are indeed dynamic. In April, Brent crude oil prices briefly reached US$117 per barrel, then rapidly corrected to around US$78 per barrel following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement. The agreement was initially scheduled to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, June 19.
Then, Brent crude oil prices rose again above US$80 (around Rp1.4 million) per barrel on Friday, as investors considered increasing geopolitical risks following the cancellation of planned negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, as well as a new Israeli attack on Lebanon.
Global crude oil prices also influence the average ICP, which is used to determine non-subsidized fuel prices. In the 2026 State Budget, macroeconomic assumptions set the ICP at US$70 per barrel.
"My recommendation is that the government prepares a scenario simulation, for example, with an ICP of US$70–90 per barrel, because the regime uncertainty is much greater than the usual statistical error," Yayan said.
Nevertheless, he believes that Indonesia's fiscal cushion is strong enough to withstand the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again, even though a significant portion of it would be used up.
He explained that the government has a surplus budget balance (SAL) of approximately Rp420 trillion and is maintaining a deficit of around 2.9 percent. With an average ICP of US$90 per barrel, the deficit will widen to around Rp136 trillion.
Meanwhile, assuming the Strait of Hormuz is re-closed, resulting in an average ICP of US$100 per barrel, the deficit will widen by around Rp204 trillion.
"This means that the Rp420 trillion SAL still covers the scenario of a re-closure without spending cuts, but as a one-time insurance policy, not a structural solution," Yayan said.
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