September 3, 2026 | 05:01 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The El Nino weather phenomenon is set to intensify and will almost certainly last until February next year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in an update Thursday.
As reported by DW, the UN weather agency warned El Nino would develop into a "very strong" event in the coming months, heightening the risks of extreme heat, drought and flooding while threatening livelihoods and economies.
"El Nino is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a statement. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."
WMO head Celeste Saulo told a press conference in Geneva that, on the current trajectory, the El Nino, "may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began, so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades."
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that happens every two to seven years and is not caused by climate change. But scientists say it can worsen the impacts of global heating caused by the continued burning of fossil fuels.
The WMO classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, with the current El Nino set to reach the highest intensity level on that scale.
The phenomenon begins with the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns around the world.
For example, it often brings dry conditions and drought to Australia, Indonesia and parts of the Amazon, while East Africa and the southern U.S. may experience heavy rainfall.
El Ninos typically begin between March and June, peaking toward the end of the year and lasting around nine to 12 months.
Ocean temperatures already 'exceptionally' high
WMO head Saulo said there was "an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent that El Nino will persist through to February 2027," adding that it was the first time the organization had "expressed such a degree of certainty. "
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific region, which drive El Nino and reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometers away, are already well above average and continuing to rise, according to the UN agency.
"Subsurface ocean temps are also exceptionally high and in some areas more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August," Saulo said.
While El Nino is expected to peak toward the end of the year, its knock-on effects will likely last well into 2027, she added.
Global average temperatures are often particularly high the year after an El Nino. For example, the 2023-2024 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record.
"We should not be surprised if this record is broken," Saulo said.
'We have no time to lose'
Saulo said droughts, floods and extreme heat were already causing disruption and devastation, and warned these impacts would "multiply and cascade as El Nino intensifies."
Saulo stressed that the weather phenomenon would "deliver a major blow to communities, economies and supply chains across the globe" and called for preparations to safeguard climate-sensitive sectors.
"We have no time to lose," she said.
Read: UN Warns of Higher Disaster Risk as Global Temperatures Exceed 1.5C
Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News
Peru Declares State of Emergency Over El Nino Threat
1 hari lalu
Peru declared a 60-day state of emergency in 893 districts across 23 regions, following imminent risks posed by heavy rains linked to El Nino.
BMKG: Extreme Drought Hits 43% of West Java
2 hari lalu
Throughout August 2026, 43 percent of West Java experienced extreme drought, according to BMKG.
Prabowo Targets End to Indonesia's Forest Fires Within Two Weeks
8 hari lalu
President Prabowo Subianto hopes Indonesia can extinguish forest and land fires within two weeks as El Nino drives a severe dry season.
The Far-Reaching Economic Impact of Wildfires
10 hari lalu
Wildfires amidst the intensifying El Nino conditions could result in far broader economic impact beyond a mere scorched land or forest.
Panama Canal to Cap Ship Transits Due to El Nino Drought
13 hari lalu
Panama Canal will cut daily transits of ships from September because of low rainfall and amid an intensifying El Nino event.
How Will Singapore GP Handle Haze During F1 Race?
14 hari lalu
The Singapore GP said haze is covered under its overall contingency plan.
Prabowo Assures Food Supply Is Secure as El Nino Looms
20 hari lalu
Prabowo stated that Indonesia is prepared to face El Nino because food supplies are secure.
Is Indonesia Truly Food Self-Sufficient, as Prabowo Claims?
20 hari lalu
According to President Prabowo, Indonesia's food security remains stable, helping cushion the impact of the El Nino threat.
Strong El Nino Could Raise Wildfire Risk in East Java, BMKG Warns
21 hari lalu
BMKG warns strong El Nino could bring drier conditions and increase wildfire risks in East Java, as a blaze hits Mount Bromo.
Western Europe Records Hottest June and July on Record
24 hari lalu
Drought is gripping large parts of Europe, with soils unusually dry and major rivers running low.
