TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Indonesian Ministry of Finance has announced optimistic dynamic macroeconomic assumptions. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa predicts that Indonesia's economy will grow by 5.4 percent in 2026.
As of the first quarter of 2026, economic growth was recorded at 5.61 percent, higher than last year's growth of 5.11 percent year-on-year.
"This is based on macroeconomic assumptions. Economic growth will stand at 5.4 percent. The latest was 5.61 percent. The rupiah exchange rate up to now is 17,057 year to date, on average, (the assumption in) the state budget is 16,500," said Purbaya in the KiTA state budget press conference in Jakarta on Friday, June 5, 2026.
The ministry also targeted this year's inflation rate to remain at 2.5 percent, but as of May 2026, inflation stood at 3.08 percent. This figure is slightly higher than the actual inflation in all of 2025, which was 2.92 percent.
The exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar was set at Rp16,500 per US dollar in the 2026 state budget. As of June 3, 2026, the middle rate of Bank Indonesia was recorded at Rp17,057 per US dollar year-to-date and Rp17,863 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the yield of 10-year Government Bonds (SBN) in the 2026 state budget was set at 6.9 percent. As of May 26, 2026, the SBN yield was recorded at 6.48 percent year-to-date and 6.67 percent at the end of the observation period.
For energy commodities, the assumed price of the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in the 2026 state budget was US$70 per barrel. However, the actual realization until May 2026 reached US$91.9 per barrel. Meanwhile, the oil lifting was set at 610 thousand barrels per day, while the actual realization until February 2026 only reached 535.8 thousand barrels per day.
On the other hand, gas lifting was targeted at 984 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026. As of February 2026, the actual realization reached 957.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Purbaya mentioned that high economic growth is supported by increased household consumption, investment, and accelerated government spending. Inflation is considered to remain controlled with the decline in volatile food prices and government-set prices, supported by energy and food price policies to maintain people's purchasing power.
The depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate is influenced by geopolitical factors and the direction of global monetary policies. The movement of SBN yields is also influenced by global dynamics, although its level and volatility can still be maintained.
The global oil price hike is influenced by supply chain disruptions due to conflict in the Middle East and international policy developments. Meanwhile, the optimization of oil and gas lifting continues amidst the still volatile commodity market conditions.
Read: How to Save Rupiah and JCI from Further Drops
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